Published in Dawn, May 7th, 2020
Zofeen T. Ebrahim
The Indus delta is being lost to the sea and we need to do something about it
If authorities do not act fast, Indus delta will cease to exist, spurring mass migration and ecological consequences.
"What you don’t see, you cannot feel." This phrase was used by Tanzeela Qambrani, Pakistan’s first lawmaker of African descent, to encapsulate the plight of the impoverished communities living in the once-flourishing Indus delta. Qambrani, whose Sheedi community is concentrated in the coastal regions of Makran in Balochistan province and Sindh, said the level of poverty is "incredible".
Known as the vertebra of Pakistan’s ecology and economy, the Indus delta is the fifth largest in the world and home to the seventh biggest mangrove forest. In recognition of its international importance, the wetland was designated as a Ramsar site in 2002.
It forms where the mighty Indus river flows into the Arabian Sea, creating a complex system of swamps, streams and mangrove forests. A triangular piece of fertile land is created when the fast-flowing river deposits rich sediment as it empties into the sea.
However, dam construction and mismanagement of water by the government have significantly reduced river flows, causing the delta to shrink, and threatening both human life and its ecology. The absence of flowing freshwater allows seawater into the delta, destroying the soil and the aquifers, making it unfit for humans, animals or crops.
Last year, The Third Pole reported that around 1.2 million people from the delta have already migrated to Karachi.
For years, the communities in the delta have reported the loss of livelihood, an increase in disease and forced migration to cities which are already densely populated. "Almost everyone you know has tested positive for Hepatitis C," said Qambrani.
There are acres of land where nothing can grow, and people are forced to remain only because they do not have the resources to migrate. To understand the extent of their despondency, she said, Prime Minister Imran Khan must visit the delta himself.
Yet, despite pleas from the communities and compelling recommendations made by experts in a first-of-its-kind study published in 2018, not much has changed.
Scale of loss
The study made some startling revelations. Among the most shocking discoveries is evidence that, over the last two centuries, the delta has shrunk by 92%.
With the help of remote sensing and geospatial tools, the 15-month long study conducted by five university researchers found that nearly 60% of the tidal floodplain was barren, while 32% was under water. Satellite images revealed that from 16% in 1990, the floodplain covered by mangroves had been reduced to 10%. By 2017, even with the concerted efforts of the government and conservationists, it increased to just 13%.
Altaf Siyal, a professor at the Mehran University of Engineering and Technology (MUET) in Jamshoro which led the study, was its lead author. "When the delta was a flourishing ecosystem, it had 17 creeks," he told thethirdpole.net. "Today, there are just two active ones left."
The evidence pointed to the following reasons: decreased river flow to the delta resulted in reduced sediment deposits; surface and subsurface seawater intrusion; land subsidence, sea level rise, climate change, and anthropogenic activities — all of which have contributed to the shrinkage and degradation of one of the largest ecosystems in the world.
A glacier fed system
As the glaciers of the Hindu Kush Himalayas —which make up 80% of the Indus flow — melt at a faster rate, there should be more water to sustain a sizable population in the short term, but in an increasingly unpredictable manner. However, detrimental policies and ill-informed projects have destroyed both the delta and the groundwater.
The findings mirror the experiences of the residents. Gulab Shah, who lives near the village of Kharo Chan in Thatta district, said his family has 6,500 acres of land that they want to sell and move to the city but there are no buyers. Even if he wanted to cultivate crops, he is unable to find farmhands as people have migrated from his village due to the acute shortage of drinking water. "It is giving me sleepless nights," he said.
The study also found that 88.4% of the population of the delta lived below the poverty line, of which 31.4% were the "poorest of the poor".
Economy over ecology
Many experts feel that taming the mighty Indus through dams and barrages was perhaps the biggest mistake.
Nasir Panhwar, an environmentalist and former coordinator for WWF’s Indus for All Programme, said the reservoirs on the Indus and its tributaries were constructed to serve the needs of expanding agriculture as well as the subsequent industrial development. He said that today the delta is starved of sediment because economic priorities overruled the ecological consequences that will haunt us for years to come. He blamed the severe degradation of the delta on the upstream diversions of the river. "It is one of the worst examples of human interventions in nature."
Another factor, he added, is the intricate system of canals, barrages and reservoirs which transferred supplies from the Indus, Jhelum and Chenab rivers to the areas formerly fed by the eastern rivers. This was done in order to compensate for water lost to India under the Indus Waters Treaty signed between India and Pakistan in September 1960, he said.
The irrigation system was developed in the British era to increase crop production, which turned the basin into a densely populated area. Extensive human interventions since then have led to adverse ecological consequences.
Siyal added that a series of dams were erected: the Warsak dam in 1965, followed by the Mangla dam in 1967, and the Tarbela from 1968-76.
He warned that construction of more dams might result in "no flow", to the detriment of the delta. If electricity is needed, maybe run-of-the-river plants maybe considered, as they do not obstruct water as much. Still, he emphasised that wind and solar are better options, especially when both the resources are found in abundance.
A blow to biodiversity
According to Siyal, deltas need to be kept alive as they are biologically the most "productive places" in the world, due to their rich biodiversity which provides shelter and a natural breeding ground to migratory birds and animals. In addition, he said they provide livelihood to millions of people both in and around the delta, especially those working in agriculture.
The construction of dams upstream, however, led to a decline in sediment which has translated to a massive loss in agriculture for the inhabitants of the Indus delta. Panwhar cited a 2019 World Bank study which noted that from an estimated 270 million tonnes per year at pre-development levels, the sediment that reaches the delta today is a mere 13 million tonnes.
"Flow reductions have led to significant salinity in the delta, leading to a reduction in plant diversity." He added that four out of eight plant species that thrived in the delta have disappeared in recent years.
In addition, the MUET’s United States-Pakistan Centre for Advanced Studies in Water which conducted the study found that up to 78% of the water available is unfit for either drinking or farming.
The groundwater is as bad, if not worse. Evidence showed that up to 94% of groundwater samples had chloride concentration higher than the safe limit.
"We even found arsenic beyond the permissible limit prescribed by the WHO in water samples collected from installed reverse osmosis (RO) plants," said Ghulam Shabbir Solangi, a member of the research team that went by boat to collect samples of water and soil from the creeks.
Despite the significant degradation, Siyal said, the most imperilled part of Pakistan fails to draw public attention.
Poor understanding of water systems
There is little understanding among the public or policymakers about why the flow of the river is important for the sea. "The delta is considered a wasteland. The release of freshwater from the Indus is also termed 'wastage'," said Panhwar. "It is imperative to educate and sensitise everyone about the significance of the Indus delta."
If the delta fails to get fresh water from the Indus, Siyal said it may die. He shared the example of central Asia’s Aral Sea which dramatically shrank because of the damming of the Syr Darya river upstream.
Recommendations
The report’s lead author said that for surface seawater intrusion, the construction of dykes and levees is very important. He added that this was among the demands of the local communities in the delta as it will provide them quick and easy access to the markets of Karachi.
Water resources expert, Hassan Abbas, however, said dykes interfere with tidal action necessary for mangrove forests and roads on dykes can block high floods from draining out to the sea, trapping the communities in un-drained floodplains for months to come.
"A coastal highway through the delta is a good idea as long as it does not interfere both with the tidal action as well as natural flood flows," he concluded. The study recommended the expansion of the 38 kilometre coastal highways to up to 200 kilometres in length.
Some work had already started long before Siyal’s report. Qambrani pointed to the 87 kilometre Sindh Coastal Highway terming it a "good initiative" but added it would take a decade to complete.
Siyal further said there was field evidence that whenever levees were built in the delta, there was minimum surface seawater intrusion. He gave the example of the Netherlands, where levees have been built to protect seawater flooding.
Other recommendations included the promotion of biosaline agriculture; encouraging shrimp and crab farming in natural water bodies; imposing a ban on overgrazing and cutting of mangroves for wood; restoring dried up river channels like Ochito and Old Pinyari; ensuring water availability at the tail end of canals, such as Pinyari and Phuleli; and reviving saline lakes by adding freshwater.
But the most important thing, the study noted, is ensuring 8.6 million acre feet (MAF) of water flows annually below Kotri barrage as recommended by an international panel of experts.
Sadly, almost three years since the report was made public, none of the recommendations has been taken up by the government.
"We were approached by the Ministry of Planning Development and Special Initiatives a year back. They had seen our study and wanted to carry out a discussion with us on how to improve the delta conditions, but nothing concrete has happened based on the report so far," said Bakhshal Lashari, Project Director at the USPCAS-W.
Lawmaker Qambrani had not read or heard about Siyal’s report. But as someone who hails from the coastal town of Badin, she was well aware of the issues of sea intrusion, waterlogging and salinity.
"We have been crying ourselves hoarse to bring this to the notice of the federal and provincial governments. If they do not take the plight of the delta seriously, the map of Pakistan will change in the coming 50 years, when all of the delta will be submerged in the Arabian Sea."
This article originally appeared on thethirdpole.net and has been reproduced with permission.
Zofeen T. Ebrahim is an independent journalist based in Karachi.
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Shortage Of Water In Pakistan
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swamidada2
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‘I always do what I promise’: Modi warns Pakistan he’s serious about using 100% of Indian river waters
19 Oct, 2019 03:02
‘I always do what I promise’: Modi warns Pakistan he’s serious about using 100% of Indian river waters
A hydropower project in the Chenab river, which flows through India & Pakistan © Reuters
Indian PM Narendra Modi has warned Pakistan he means what he said about not wasting a single drop of ‘Indian water’, after Islamabad stated that any attempt to divert rivers would be viewed as an ‘act of aggression.’
“Once I decide to do something, I always accomplish that,” the PM told an election rally on Friday, slamming the opposition party for allowing a portion of India’s river water to leave the country.
The water over which Haryana’s farmers have the right will not flow to Pakistan now.
‘This water belongs to our farmers’: Modi vows not a single drop of Indian water will flow to Pakistan
However, Pakistani Foreign Minister Muhammad Faisal had accused India of not just planning to utilize its water share to the max, but plotting to actually divert the rivers, and framed the PM’s words as “another glaring example of the fact that the present government of India is bent upon making India an irresponsible and aggressive state that has no regard for human rights or international obligations.” He stated that Pakistan has “exclusive rights” over three western rivers under the Indus Water Treaty.
Any attempt by India to divert the flows of these rivers will be considered an act of aggression and Pakistan has the right to respond.
Modi pledged during a rally in Haryana earlier this week to “stop” the waters flowing to Pakistan and “bring it to [farmers’] households” in Haryana and Rajasthan, promising supporters that work was already underway on the project.
On Friday, he elaborated on his plan to free farmers in Haryana from dependence on weather, which left India catastrophically dry until the monsoon earlier this month drenched the nation. Modi promised to invest 3.5 lakh crore rupees over the next five years to beef up irrigation systems in the state, including recycling household water for that purpose, along with diverting river waters.
Under the Indus Water Treaty, India and Pakistan share the waters of the six rivers that run through both countries. The 1960 agreement has not been broken despite three wars. India has rights to the waters of the Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej rivers – but about 5 percent of unused water from those rivers currently flows into Pakistan.
https://www.rt.com/news/471274-india-mo ... -pakistan/
19 Oct, 2019 03:02
‘I always do what I promise’: Modi warns Pakistan he’s serious about using 100% of Indian river waters
A hydropower project in the Chenab river, which flows through India & Pakistan © Reuters
Indian PM Narendra Modi has warned Pakistan he means what he said about not wasting a single drop of ‘Indian water’, after Islamabad stated that any attempt to divert rivers would be viewed as an ‘act of aggression.’
“Once I decide to do something, I always accomplish that,” the PM told an election rally on Friday, slamming the opposition party for allowing a portion of India’s river water to leave the country.
The water over which Haryana’s farmers have the right will not flow to Pakistan now.
‘This water belongs to our farmers’: Modi vows not a single drop of Indian water will flow to Pakistan
However, Pakistani Foreign Minister Muhammad Faisal had accused India of not just planning to utilize its water share to the max, but plotting to actually divert the rivers, and framed the PM’s words as “another glaring example of the fact that the present government of India is bent upon making India an irresponsible and aggressive state that has no regard for human rights or international obligations.” He stated that Pakistan has “exclusive rights” over three western rivers under the Indus Water Treaty.
Any attempt by India to divert the flows of these rivers will be considered an act of aggression and Pakistan has the right to respond.
Modi pledged during a rally in Haryana earlier this week to “stop” the waters flowing to Pakistan and “bring it to [farmers’] households” in Haryana and Rajasthan, promising supporters that work was already underway on the project.
On Friday, he elaborated on his plan to free farmers in Haryana from dependence on weather, which left India catastrophically dry until the monsoon earlier this month drenched the nation. Modi promised to invest 3.5 lakh crore rupees over the next five years to beef up irrigation systems in the state, including recycling household water for that purpose, along with diverting river waters.
Under the Indus Water Treaty, India and Pakistan share the waters of the six rivers that run through both countries. The 1960 agreement has not been broken despite three wars. India has rights to the waters of the Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej rivers – but about 5 percent of unused water from those rivers currently flows into Pakistan.
https://www.rt.com/news/471274-india-mo ... -pakistan/
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swamidada2
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Diamer-Bhasha dam
Sanaullah Khan May 11, 2020
Prime Minister Imran Khan was informed on Monday that all the prep work for the Diamer-Bhasha dam has been completed and the project was ready for construction.
Taking to Twitter, Special Assistant to the Prime Minister on Information and Broadcasting retired Lt Gen Asim Saleem Bajwa called the announcement "historic news".
He said: "Announcing to start construction of Diamer-Bhasha dam today is historic news for all generations of Pakistan. A huge stimulus for our economy, [will] create 16,500 jobs, generate 4,500 MW hydel power and irrigate 1.2 m acres agri land, enhance Tarbela dam’s age by 35 years."
Chairing today's briefing on national water security strategy and the construction of dams to meet the country's agricultural and energy requirements, the premier was informed about the progress of all pending issues related to the dam's construction.
The premier expressed satisfaction over the progress made so far and directed authorities concerned to begin construction work on the dam. "Ensuring water security is the government's first priority," he said, according to a statement issued by the Prime Minister's Office.
"In addition to ensuring the optimum utilisation of available water resources for agricultural needs, the construction of dams will help meet energy requirements at affordable rates."
The prime minister directed that local materials and expertise be used during construction to provide the people with ample job opportunities.
According to the statement, during today's meeting, PM Imran was informed that "all issues related to this critically important project, including settlement, detailed roadmap for mobilisation of financial resources etc. have been resolved and the project was ready for commencement of physical work".
The meeting was informed that Diamer-Bhasha dam had remained in limbo for decades due to various reasons.
"The construction of the dam will create 16,500 jobs and utilise a large quantity of cement and steel which will boost our industry, in addition to its main purpose of water storage and producing 4,500 MW of cheap and affordable electricity," the press release said.
"The 6.4 million acre feet (MAF) water storage capacity of the dam will reduce the current water shortage in the country of 12 MAF to 6.1 MAF. It will add 35 years to the life of Tarbela dam by reducing sedimentation. An area of 1.23 million acres of land will be brought under agriculture [use] due to this dam," it added.
The meeting was also informed that Rs78.5 billion will be spent on the area around the dam for its social development as part of the project. "[The dam] will also be a major source of flood mitigation and save billions in damages caused by floods each year," the statement added.
The chairman of Water and Power Development Authority (Wapda) also briefed the meeting about the progress of the recently-commenced construction work that at Mohmand Dam.
PM Imran was also informed about the Dasu hydropower project and the progress made so far. "The premier expressed satisfaction over the progress and directed to ensure expeditious commencement of the project," the statement read.
It added that the prime minister was also told that funds have been arranged for Naulong dam in Balochistan and that work on the project will commence next year.
The premier stressed the need for starting the Sindh barrage project. "The project has huge benefits in addressing the agriculture needs of the province. It will stop soil erosion and also improve the drinking water situation for urban centres in Sindh," he said.
PM Imran also appreciated the efforts made by the water resources ministry and Wapda in pursuing the projects. He reiterated his emphasis on keeping a close eye on the quality of work and meeting timelines.
https://www.dawn.com/news/1556374/diame ... imran-told
Sanaullah Khan May 11, 2020
Prime Minister Imran Khan was informed on Monday that all the prep work for the Diamer-Bhasha dam has been completed and the project was ready for construction.
Taking to Twitter, Special Assistant to the Prime Minister on Information and Broadcasting retired Lt Gen Asim Saleem Bajwa called the announcement "historic news".
He said: "Announcing to start construction of Diamer-Bhasha dam today is historic news for all generations of Pakistan. A huge stimulus for our economy, [will] create 16,500 jobs, generate 4,500 MW hydel power and irrigate 1.2 m acres agri land, enhance Tarbela dam’s age by 35 years."
Chairing today's briefing on national water security strategy and the construction of dams to meet the country's agricultural and energy requirements, the premier was informed about the progress of all pending issues related to the dam's construction.
The premier expressed satisfaction over the progress made so far and directed authorities concerned to begin construction work on the dam. "Ensuring water security is the government's first priority," he said, according to a statement issued by the Prime Minister's Office.
"In addition to ensuring the optimum utilisation of available water resources for agricultural needs, the construction of dams will help meet energy requirements at affordable rates."
The prime minister directed that local materials and expertise be used during construction to provide the people with ample job opportunities.
According to the statement, during today's meeting, PM Imran was informed that "all issues related to this critically important project, including settlement, detailed roadmap for mobilisation of financial resources etc. have been resolved and the project was ready for commencement of physical work".
The meeting was informed that Diamer-Bhasha dam had remained in limbo for decades due to various reasons.
"The construction of the dam will create 16,500 jobs and utilise a large quantity of cement and steel which will boost our industry, in addition to its main purpose of water storage and producing 4,500 MW of cheap and affordable electricity," the press release said.
"The 6.4 million acre feet (MAF) water storage capacity of the dam will reduce the current water shortage in the country of 12 MAF to 6.1 MAF. It will add 35 years to the life of Tarbela dam by reducing sedimentation. An area of 1.23 million acres of land will be brought under agriculture [use] due to this dam," it added.
The meeting was also informed that Rs78.5 billion will be spent on the area around the dam for its social development as part of the project. "[The dam] will also be a major source of flood mitigation and save billions in damages caused by floods each year," the statement added.
The chairman of Water and Power Development Authority (Wapda) also briefed the meeting about the progress of the recently-commenced construction work that at Mohmand Dam.
PM Imran was also informed about the Dasu hydropower project and the progress made so far. "The premier expressed satisfaction over the progress and directed to ensure expeditious commencement of the project," the statement read.
It added that the prime minister was also told that funds have been arranged for Naulong dam in Balochistan and that work on the project will commence next year.
The premier stressed the need for starting the Sindh barrage project. "The project has huge benefits in addressing the agriculture needs of the province. It will stop soil erosion and also improve the drinking water situation for urban centres in Sindh," he said.
PM Imran also appreciated the efforts made by the water resources ministry and Wapda in pursuing the projects. He reiterated his emphasis on keeping a close eye on the quality of work and meeting timelines.
https://www.dawn.com/news/1556374/diame ... imran-told
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swamidada2
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Surging glacier creates lake, floods Pakistan valley
Danger of another flood as water continues to flow from the lake in Hunza valley in northern Pakistan.
Shabina FarazPublished about 17 hours ago
"A loud rumble echoed and water started trickling down with soil and rocks. Villagers immediately left their homes and fled to safety," recounted Manzoor Hussain. Hussain lives in Hassanabad, a village in the Hunza valley high in the Hindu Kush Himalayas in northern Pakistan.
It was siesta time on May 30 when the rumbling started. "It was not the first time, so people in the village knew what was happening. They were aware of glacial lake outburst floods [GLOFs]. They thought it was a GLOF at the Shishper glacier," said Hussain.
In fact, a lake near the Machuhar glacier had burst its banks, causing a flood that submerged farms, the local power plant and part of the Karakoram Highway. Most residents had to sleep in tents afterwards.
The flood submerged farms, the local power plant and part of the Karakoram Highway. — Photo by Zaheer Uddin Babar
Was this a GLOF, where the failure of an unstable natural dam releases meltwater from a glacier? The question is complicated by the Karakoram Anomaly, which describes the advance of glaciers in the region in contrast to the retreat of other glaciers in the Himalayas and globally. Expert opinion is divided.
Zaheer Uddin Babar, the focal person for GLOFs in the Gilgit Baltistan Disaster Management Authority, said, "We can’t interlink the recent incident with a GLOF. Satellite images received from SUPARCO [Pakistan’s Space & Upper Atmosphere Research Commission] are not indicating any glacial lake. It may be the water spilled out from a lake on the surface of the Machuhar glacier. The water flow was as low as 3,000 cusecs [cubic feet per second] only." In some parts of the Hindu Kush Himalayas, water flow after a GLOF has been recorded at around 100,000 cusecs.
The villagers thought the May 30 incident was a GLOF because they had experienced one with a water flow of 7,000 cusecs in 2019, when a 1.5 kilometre-wide lake burst its banks. That time, a large section of the Karakoram Highway, a bridge, two power plants, some offices, over 100 houses, the water supply pumphouse and most farms were submerged.
Shishper is a surging, or advancing, glacier. It formed around the beginning of the twentieth century, when what was then the Hassanabad glacier in the north of the Hunza valley split into two. Machuhar is the other glacier formed by this split. Like the overwhelming majority of glaciers in the Hindu Kush Himalayas, Machuhar is receding due to the warming caused by climate change. There are over 15,000 glaciers in this tallest and youngest mountain range of the world, which stretches from Afghanistan to Myanmar. The number keeps changing as receding glaciers split into two or more.
The surge of one glacier while its neighbour melts is creating a strange situation. Babar said Shishper has been surging quickly; it moved forward two kilometres in 2018-19, though there has been no indication of a surge since November 2019. But the earlier surge blocked the drainage route of the Machuhar glacier. As a result, a lake has formed at the snout, or mouth, of the Machuhar glacier, and is getting bigger as climate change gathers pace and the rate of melt increases.
Blocking the water flowing down from the Machuhar glacier also means blocking this water supply to the Hunza River, a tributary of the transboundary Indus River.
A lake has formed at the snout of the Machuhar glacier, and is getting bigger. — Photo by Sher Mohammad
There are other glacier pairs in the same situation. Zahid Hussain, a field manager in a GLOF project, said, "Yune glacier in Bagrot valley is also extending and it has already blocked the waters of Gurgo glacier. A huge cavity has opened up on the hillside, at the intersection of the two glaciers. There is a lake forming, which can burst its banks and can create a disaster any time."
Muhammad Riaz, director-general of Pakistan Meteorological Department, told The Third Pole, "There are more than 3,000 glacial lakes in the Karakoram ranges and 34-36 of them have been declared to be of high GLOF potential."
The danger of a surging glacier
"But the glacier surge is a larger menace than GLOF," said Sher Mohammad, a glacier specialist at the regional International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development, with its headquarters in Kathmandu. "There are more than 200 glaciers identified in the Karakoram range with surging or surge-like history and these glaciers cover more than 40% (7,700 square kilometres) of the total glacier area in the Karakoram."
"The exact reason for some glaciers surging in the Karakoram is still unclear," he added. "It has no linear correlation with snowfall anomalies and thermal changes. However, extreme weather and climate change probably affect surges and surge dynamics, such as intensification, enhance melting, creating crevasses on glacier surfaces and changing the glacier volume."
Asif Khan, an expert on climate change and an author of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s sixth assessment report, said, "Surging is a short-lived event, when a glacier moves 10 to 100 times faster than its normal velocity."
Mohammad said the flooding on May 30 was probably triggered by a rise in temperature, causing significant glacier melt and increasing the size of the lake. Meteorological data shows a significant temperature rise in the Hunza area in late May. In the first half of June, water was still flowing down the hillside and being blocked by debris, posing a potential risk of another flood.
There was a significant temperature rise in the Hunza area in late May, which probably triggered the flooding. — Photo by Manzoor Hussain
Shaukat Ali, a climate expert at the Islamabad-based Global Change Impact Studies Centre (GCISC), said, "Surge is a phenomenon that can also be caused by extreme events of precipitation. The Karakoram Anomaly may cause surging and advancing of the Shishper glacier. Our research at GCISC shows that Gupis, Drosh, Chitral and Gilgit are the future hotspots of the highest increase in average temperature in the 21st century."
Ali pointed out that this could lead to significant changes in future water availability in Pakistan, which is dependent almost totally on the Indus basin for irrigation and other uses. Pakistan’s agriculture sector contributes around 22% of Pakistan’s GDP, and over 45% of the country’s workforce is engaged in agriculture, directly or indirectly.
A higher glacier melting rate can also trigger GLOFs and floods downstream, leading to more infrastructure and economic losses, Ali added.
This article originally appeared on thethirdpole.net and has been reproduced with permission.
https://www.dawn.com/news/1563034/surgi ... tan-valley
Danger of another flood as water continues to flow from the lake in Hunza valley in northern Pakistan.
Shabina FarazPublished about 17 hours ago
"A loud rumble echoed and water started trickling down with soil and rocks. Villagers immediately left their homes and fled to safety," recounted Manzoor Hussain. Hussain lives in Hassanabad, a village in the Hunza valley high in the Hindu Kush Himalayas in northern Pakistan.
It was siesta time on May 30 when the rumbling started. "It was not the first time, so people in the village knew what was happening. They were aware of glacial lake outburst floods [GLOFs]. They thought it was a GLOF at the Shishper glacier," said Hussain.
In fact, a lake near the Machuhar glacier had burst its banks, causing a flood that submerged farms, the local power plant and part of the Karakoram Highway. Most residents had to sleep in tents afterwards.
The flood submerged farms, the local power plant and part of the Karakoram Highway. — Photo by Zaheer Uddin Babar
Was this a GLOF, where the failure of an unstable natural dam releases meltwater from a glacier? The question is complicated by the Karakoram Anomaly, which describes the advance of glaciers in the region in contrast to the retreat of other glaciers in the Himalayas and globally. Expert opinion is divided.
Zaheer Uddin Babar, the focal person for GLOFs in the Gilgit Baltistan Disaster Management Authority, said, "We can’t interlink the recent incident with a GLOF. Satellite images received from SUPARCO [Pakistan’s Space & Upper Atmosphere Research Commission] are not indicating any glacial lake. It may be the water spilled out from a lake on the surface of the Machuhar glacier. The water flow was as low as 3,000 cusecs [cubic feet per second] only." In some parts of the Hindu Kush Himalayas, water flow after a GLOF has been recorded at around 100,000 cusecs.
The villagers thought the May 30 incident was a GLOF because they had experienced one with a water flow of 7,000 cusecs in 2019, when a 1.5 kilometre-wide lake burst its banks. That time, a large section of the Karakoram Highway, a bridge, two power plants, some offices, over 100 houses, the water supply pumphouse and most farms were submerged.
Shishper is a surging, or advancing, glacier. It formed around the beginning of the twentieth century, when what was then the Hassanabad glacier in the north of the Hunza valley split into two. Machuhar is the other glacier formed by this split. Like the overwhelming majority of glaciers in the Hindu Kush Himalayas, Machuhar is receding due to the warming caused by climate change. There are over 15,000 glaciers in this tallest and youngest mountain range of the world, which stretches from Afghanistan to Myanmar. The number keeps changing as receding glaciers split into two or more.
The surge of one glacier while its neighbour melts is creating a strange situation. Babar said Shishper has been surging quickly; it moved forward two kilometres in 2018-19, though there has been no indication of a surge since November 2019. But the earlier surge blocked the drainage route of the Machuhar glacier. As a result, a lake has formed at the snout, or mouth, of the Machuhar glacier, and is getting bigger as climate change gathers pace and the rate of melt increases.
Blocking the water flowing down from the Machuhar glacier also means blocking this water supply to the Hunza River, a tributary of the transboundary Indus River.
A lake has formed at the snout of the Machuhar glacier, and is getting bigger. — Photo by Sher Mohammad
There are other glacier pairs in the same situation. Zahid Hussain, a field manager in a GLOF project, said, "Yune glacier in Bagrot valley is also extending and it has already blocked the waters of Gurgo glacier. A huge cavity has opened up on the hillside, at the intersection of the two glaciers. There is a lake forming, which can burst its banks and can create a disaster any time."
Muhammad Riaz, director-general of Pakistan Meteorological Department, told The Third Pole, "There are more than 3,000 glacial lakes in the Karakoram ranges and 34-36 of them have been declared to be of high GLOF potential."
The danger of a surging glacier
"But the glacier surge is a larger menace than GLOF," said Sher Mohammad, a glacier specialist at the regional International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development, with its headquarters in Kathmandu. "There are more than 200 glaciers identified in the Karakoram range with surging or surge-like history and these glaciers cover more than 40% (7,700 square kilometres) of the total glacier area in the Karakoram."
"The exact reason for some glaciers surging in the Karakoram is still unclear," he added. "It has no linear correlation with snowfall anomalies and thermal changes. However, extreme weather and climate change probably affect surges and surge dynamics, such as intensification, enhance melting, creating crevasses on glacier surfaces and changing the glacier volume."
Asif Khan, an expert on climate change and an author of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s sixth assessment report, said, "Surging is a short-lived event, when a glacier moves 10 to 100 times faster than its normal velocity."
Mohammad said the flooding on May 30 was probably triggered by a rise in temperature, causing significant glacier melt and increasing the size of the lake. Meteorological data shows a significant temperature rise in the Hunza area in late May. In the first half of June, water was still flowing down the hillside and being blocked by debris, posing a potential risk of another flood.
There was a significant temperature rise in the Hunza area in late May, which probably triggered the flooding. — Photo by Manzoor Hussain
Shaukat Ali, a climate expert at the Islamabad-based Global Change Impact Studies Centre (GCISC), said, "Surge is a phenomenon that can also be caused by extreme events of precipitation. The Karakoram Anomaly may cause surging and advancing of the Shishper glacier. Our research at GCISC shows that Gupis, Drosh, Chitral and Gilgit are the future hotspots of the highest increase in average temperature in the 21st century."
Ali pointed out that this could lead to significant changes in future water availability in Pakistan, which is dependent almost totally on the Indus basin for irrigation and other uses. Pakistan’s agriculture sector contributes around 22% of Pakistan’s GDP, and over 45% of the country’s workforce is engaged in agriculture, directly or indirectly.
A higher glacier melting rate can also trigger GLOFs and floods downstream, leading to more infrastructure and economic losses, Ali added.
This article originally appeared on thethirdpole.net and has been reproduced with permission.
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Re: Shortage Of Water In Pakistan
How India’s Threat to Block Rivers Could Devastate Pakistan
After a militant attack in Kashmir, the Indian government said it was suspending its participation in a treaty that governs most of the water used in Pakistani agriculture.
By Anupreeta DasPragati K.B. and Zia ur-Rehman
Reporting from New Delhi
April 24, 2025
India on Wednesday said it would suspend its participation in a crucial water-sharing agreement with Pakistan, a punitive measure that could wreak havoc on the country’s agriculture and economy.
The move came a day after militants killed 26 civilians who were visiting a scenic location in the part of Kashmir controlled by India. Both countries lay claim to and control parts of the strife-torn region. Although India did not blame Pakistan outright, it said there were “cross-border linkages” with the attackers.
India has threatened before, in other moments of rising tensions, to pull out of the Indus Waters Treaty, which both countries signed in 1960. If India follows through this time, it could restrict the flow of water that is used for most of Pakistan’s crop irrigation and human consumption. Agriculture represents one-fourth of the country’s economy. Pakistan receives most of the water from the river system.
The Pakistani government said on Thursday that it would consider any blockage of the water an “act of war.” India, larger and more developed, would have far less to lose by walking away from the pact, although it might face criticism from the global community and raise questions about whether it is flouting international law.
What is the Indus Waters Treaty?
It is an agreement between India and Pakistan that specifies how the waters of six rivers and their tributaries, called the Indus waters, will be used by the two countries.
The agreement became necessary after 1947, when India and Pakistan became independent countries, although the treaty took a decade to negotiate and was signed in 1960, with the World Bank as a mediator. The treaty outlined the rights and obligations of both countries for “equitable use” of water flowing in the Indus river system.
India has unrestricted use of the waters of the three eastern rivers: the Ravi, the Sutlej and the Beas, two of which then flow into Pakistan. Pakistan has control of the Indus, the Chenab and the Jhelum, known as the western rivers, which pass through Indian-controlled territory but primarily reside in Pakistan. The treaty obligates India to let the waters of those rivers flow freely to Pakistan for its “unrestricted use.”
For decades, the treaty has been hailed as a landmark that could serve as a template for solving international water disputes. But in the past decade, India has threatened to weaponize the treaty during conflicts with Pakistan.
After Pakistani terrorists attacked an Indian Army base in the Kashmiri town of Uri in 2016, Mr. Modi told Indus Waters Treaty officials that “blood and water cannot flow together.” And in 2019, Indian government officials threatened to divert the flow of the eastern rivers away from Pakistan after a suicide bombing that killed dozens of Indian security forces in Kashmir.
What does India’s withdrawal mean for Pakistan?
It would put Pakistan in a tough spot. The country is arid and has been battling acute water shortages, partly because of extreme weather events. Last month, Pakistan’s water regulator warned that Punjab and Sindh, the country’s key agricultural provinces, could already face water shortfalls of as much as 35 percent during the final phase of the current crop season.
Upcoming monsoon rains also hold risks for Pakistan because India could choose to release surplus water from the eastern rivers without prior notification, potentially triggering floods, said Naseer Memon, an Islamabad-based policy analyst focusing on water governance.
If India decides to withhold hydrological data, such as the timing of monsoons and floods, the unpredictability could hurt small farmers, Mr. Memon added.
Will India take a hit from its decision?
The government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi is likely to score domestic points with its move, while the international community would be likely to see it as little more than another aspect of the flare-up between two longstanding enemies, some analysts said.
“This is a clever, popular and populistic measure,” said Happymon Jacob, an associate professor of diplomacy and disarmament at Jawaharlal Nehru University.
The global community is more likely to be concerned if border tensions escalate into armed conflict, Mr. Jacob said. “So, India has nothing to lose internationally” in suspending the water treaty, he added.
Some analysts saw an opportunity for Pakistan to seek a better outcome by casting it as a matter of international law.
“You should not cause significant harm to another country — this is customary international law that is binding on all countries,” said Anwar Sadat, senior assistant professor at the Indian Society of International Law.
Hassan Abbas, a hydrology expert, said Pakistan had effectively compromised the rights of people who live in downstream areas by signing the 1960 treaty.
“India’s recent actions present a strategic opportunity for Pakistan to take the matter to The Hague,” he said. “By articulating its position more assertively, Pakistan could seek a comprehensive review of the treaty, potentially reclaiming its rightful share of water resources.”
Anti-India sentiment rose swiftly in Pakistan on Thursday. While addressing protesters in Lahore, Haris Dar, the leader of an Islamist political party, said India had “effectively declared war” on Pakistan. “This is India’s water terrorism,” he said.
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/24/worl ... 20Pakistan.
After a militant attack in Kashmir, the Indian government said it was suspending its participation in a treaty that governs most of the water used in Pakistani agriculture.
By Anupreeta DasPragati K.B. and Zia ur-Rehman
Reporting from New Delhi
April 24, 2025
India on Wednesday said it would suspend its participation in a crucial water-sharing agreement with Pakistan, a punitive measure that could wreak havoc on the country’s agriculture and economy.
The move came a day after militants killed 26 civilians who were visiting a scenic location in the part of Kashmir controlled by India. Both countries lay claim to and control parts of the strife-torn region. Although India did not blame Pakistan outright, it said there were “cross-border linkages” with the attackers.
India has threatened before, in other moments of rising tensions, to pull out of the Indus Waters Treaty, which both countries signed in 1960. If India follows through this time, it could restrict the flow of water that is used for most of Pakistan’s crop irrigation and human consumption. Agriculture represents one-fourth of the country’s economy. Pakistan receives most of the water from the river system.
The Pakistani government said on Thursday that it would consider any blockage of the water an “act of war.” India, larger and more developed, would have far less to lose by walking away from the pact, although it might face criticism from the global community and raise questions about whether it is flouting international law.
What is the Indus Waters Treaty?
It is an agreement between India and Pakistan that specifies how the waters of six rivers and their tributaries, called the Indus waters, will be used by the two countries.
The agreement became necessary after 1947, when India and Pakistan became independent countries, although the treaty took a decade to negotiate and was signed in 1960, with the World Bank as a mediator. The treaty outlined the rights and obligations of both countries for “equitable use” of water flowing in the Indus river system.
India has unrestricted use of the waters of the three eastern rivers: the Ravi, the Sutlej and the Beas, two of which then flow into Pakistan. Pakistan has control of the Indus, the Chenab and the Jhelum, known as the western rivers, which pass through Indian-controlled territory but primarily reside in Pakistan. The treaty obligates India to let the waters of those rivers flow freely to Pakistan for its “unrestricted use.”
For decades, the treaty has been hailed as a landmark that could serve as a template for solving international water disputes. But in the past decade, India has threatened to weaponize the treaty during conflicts with Pakistan.
After Pakistani terrorists attacked an Indian Army base in the Kashmiri town of Uri in 2016, Mr. Modi told Indus Waters Treaty officials that “blood and water cannot flow together.” And in 2019, Indian government officials threatened to divert the flow of the eastern rivers away from Pakistan after a suicide bombing that killed dozens of Indian security forces in Kashmir.
What does India’s withdrawal mean for Pakistan?
It would put Pakistan in a tough spot. The country is arid and has been battling acute water shortages, partly because of extreme weather events. Last month, Pakistan’s water regulator warned that Punjab and Sindh, the country’s key agricultural provinces, could already face water shortfalls of as much as 35 percent during the final phase of the current crop season.
Upcoming monsoon rains also hold risks for Pakistan because India could choose to release surplus water from the eastern rivers without prior notification, potentially triggering floods, said Naseer Memon, an Islamabad-based policy analyst focusing on water governance.
If India decides to withhold hydrological data, such as the timing of monsoons and floods, the unpredictability could hurt small farmers, Mr. Memon added.
Will India take a hit from its decision?
The government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi is likely to score domestic points with its move, while the international community would be likely to see it as little more than another aspect of the flare-up between two longstanding enemies, some analysts said.
“This is a clever, popular and populistic measure,” said Happymon Jacob, an associate professor of diplomacy and disarmament at Jawaharlal Nehru University.
The global community is more likely to be concerned if border tensions escalate into armed conflict, Mr. Jacob said. “So, India has nothing to lose internationally” in suspending the water treaty, he added.
Some analysts saw an opportunity for Pakistan to seek a better outcome by casting it as a matter of international law.
“You should not cause significant harm to another country — this is customary international law that is binding on all countries,” said Anwar Sadat, senior assistant professor at the Indian Society of International Law.
Hassan Abbas, a hydrology expert, said Pakistan had effectively compromised the rights of people who live in downstream areas by signing the 1960 treaty.
“India’s recent actions present a strategic opportunity for Pakistan to take the matter to The Hague,” he said. “By articulating its position more assertively, Pakistan could seek a comprehensive review of the treaty, potentially reclaiming its rightful share of water resources.”
Anti-India sentiment rose swiftly in Pakistan on Thursday. While addressing protesters in Lahore, Haris Dar, the leader of an Islamist political party, said India had “effectively declared war” on Pakistan. “This is India’s water terrorism,” he said.
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/24/worl ... 20Pakistan.